Will Airey end up in the ITV hot seat?
After spells at ITV and Sky, Dawn Airey has returned to Five, causing a stir in the industry. Media Week looks at the motivations behind the move and her chances of eventually heading ITV.
Whatever the true motivations behind Dawn Airey's return to Five, there's little doubt it caused quite a stir in media-land.
Her decision to return to her spiritual home means RTL, Five's owner, has a much more rounded and experienced operator back in its ranks after spells at ITV and Sky. And one with some top-notch inside knowledge of ITV, the broadcaster many believe RTL, Europe's largest television group, has in its sights.
Her decision to return to her spiritual home means RTL, Five's owner, has a much more rounded and experienced operator back in its ranks after spells at ITV and Sky. And one with some top-notch inside knowledge of ITV, the broadcaster many believe RTL, Europe's largest television group, has in its sights.
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But why did she quit ITV for Five? The pay cheque is somewhat fatter, with a reported doubling in size to £450,000 a year.
But, according to Lorna Tilbian, media analyst at Numis Securities, there was a great deal more to this move than financial gain. "It's easy to see why she's going," says Tilbian. "She gets autonomy and lots more money."
Tilbian believes Airey's main motivation was to be the undisputed big cheese. At ITV she had to fight for the right to be Michael Grade's successor as top dog with Rupert Howell, the group's commercial director, and John Cresswell, the chief operating officer.
She also had the new arrival of former BBC man Peter Fincham to deal with. Plus Grade recently extended his reign as chief executive for at least an extra year, so her wait for the job she believed was going to be hers when she joined the group just five months ago appeared to be slipping from her grasp.
The top job
If things had gone how Airey expected, she could have been in Grade's seat by the middle of next year. But the former BBC man had other ideas and, as Tilbian puts it: "Dawn wasn't willing to fight it out with the other contenders and Five offered her what she wanted - the top job."
It has been reported that RTL is considering buying Sky's 17.9% stake in ITV, which could lead to a full takeover, and some have linked this to Airey's move to Five. RTL refused to comment on its position regarding either a bid for ITV or a buyout of Sky's stake. But one person familiar with its position said both possible moves may well be on the agenda.
However, it is also clear that Airey was not brought in to buy ITV, but to sort out the problems with Five's digital channels and prepare it for digital switchover.
Airey replaced Jane Lighting, who, it seems, had no idea she was about to lose her job. Her bosses at RTL are believed to have been unconvinced that Lighting was the person to meet these challenges.
"Airey shaped Five's punchy schedules at its launch in 1997, and Lighting didn't have that same spark," says one observer. "You have to feel sorry for Lighting as she was treated pretty shabbily in the end."
Something else considered pretty shabby is the immediate future for ITV. Not only has Grade lost one of his brightest stars, he is also under pressure from his shareholders to turn the company around. But with a downturn in the economy already impacting on advertising revenues across all media, many feel ITV is going to struggle.
In fact, Tilbian believes the group should have snapped at the chance private equity group Apax offered when it made its recent but unsuccessful bid for the company, because no one would want to buy it now.
Struggling ITV
Indeed, there are a number of seasoned media watchers who believe ITV would be better off outside the glare of shareholder scrutiny. Unfortunately for them, if Tilbian is right, they won't find a buyer any time soon.
"Who in their right mind would want ITV? And where would they get the funding?" she asks. "It's a UK-centric broadcaster in a UK economic downturn with high operational gearing and is financially vulnerable."
Harsh words, but recent statistics bear them out. ITV's share price has plummeted 35% since Grade arrived in early 2007. The group's latest results showed a fall in profits and advertising revenue as audiences continue to take flight to pay-TV rivals and the web. And Tilbian is by no means the only analyst to worry that ITV's recovery seems as far away as it did when Grade took over from Charles Allen.
Another said: "ITV's in a mess and if someone wants to buy it, then the investors should bite their hand off and run for the hills with what cash it's still able to fetch."
If RTL, a European media giant, does have serious ambitions in the UK, then now might be a good time to make its move on ITV, rather than invest hugely in Five in an attempt to compete with the former.
Then, Airey might take Grade's chair by force. No doubt something she has already dreamt about.
TERRESTRIAL CHANNELS
Commercial impacts share 2007 year-on-year % decline
All adults %
ITV1 -3.3
C4 -7.6
Five -11.0
ABC1s %
ITV1 -2.3
C4 -6.1
Five -15.5
16-34s %
ITV1 -8.0
C4 -9.5
But, according to Lorna Tilbian, media analyst at Numis Securities, there was a great deal more to this move than financial gain. "It's easy to see why she's going," says Tilbian. "She gets autonomy and lots more money."
Tilbian believes Airey's main motivation was to be the undisputed big cheese. At ITV she had to fight for the right to be Michael Grade's successor as top dog with Rupert Howell, the group's commercial director, and John Cresswell, the chief operating officer.
She also had the new arrival of former BBC man Peter Fincham to deal with. Plus Grade recently extended his reign as chief executive for at least an extra year, so her wait for the job she believed was going to be hers when she joined the group just five months ago appeared to be slipping from her grasp.
The top job
If things had gone how Airey expected, she could have been in Grade's seat by the middle of next year. But the former BBC man had other ideas and, as Tilbian puts it: "Dawn wasn't willing to fight it out with the other contenders and Five offered her what she wanted - the top job."
It has been reported that RTL is considering buying Sky's 17.9% stake in ITV, which could lead to a full takeover, and some have linked this to Airey's move to Five. RTL refused to comment on its position regarding either a bid for ITV or a buyout of Sky's stake. But one person familiar with its position said both possible moves may well be on the agenda.
However, it is also clear that Airey was not brought in to buy ITV, but to sort out the problems with Five's digital channels and prepare it for digital switchover.
Airey replaced Jane Lighting, who, it seems, had no idea she was about to lose her job. Her bosses at RTL are believed to have been unconvinced that Lighting was the person to meet these challenges.
"Airey shaped Five's punchy schedules at its launch in 1997, and Lighting didn't have that same spark," says one observer. "You have to feel sorry for Lighting as she was treated pretty shabbily in the end."
Something else considered pretty shabby is the immediate future for ITV. Not only has Grade lost one of his brightest stars, he is also under pressure from his shareholders to turn the company around. But with a downturn in the economy already impacting on advertising revenues across all media, many feel ITV is going to struggle.
In fact, Tilbian believes the group should have snapped at the chance private equity group Apax offered when it made its recent but unsuccessful bid for the company, because no one would want to buy it now.
Struggling ITV
Indeed, there are a number of seasoned media watchers who believe ITV would be better off outside the glare of shareholder scrutiny. Unfortunately for them, if Tilbian is right, they won't find a buyer any time soon.
"Who in their right mind would want ITV? And where would they get the funding?" she asks. "It's a UK-centric broadcaster in a UK economic downturn with high operational gearing and is financially vulnerable."
Harsh words, but recent statistics bear them out. ITV's share price has plummeted 35% since Grade arrived in early 2007. The group's latest results showed a fall in profits and advertising revenue as audiences continue to take flight to pay-TV rivals and the web. And Tilbian is by no means the only analyst to worry that ITV's recovery seems as far away as it did when Grade took over from Charles Allen.
Another said: "ITV's in a mess and if someone wants to buy it, then the investors should bite their hand off and run for the hills with what cash it's still able to fetch."
If RTL, a European media giant, does have serious ambitions in the UK, then now might be a good time to make its move on ITV, rather than invest hugely in Five in an attempt to compete with the former.
Then, Airey might take Grade's chair by force. No doubt something she has already dreamt about.
TERRESTRIAL CHANNELS
Commercial impacts share 2007 year-on-year % decline
All adults %
ITV1 -3.3
C4 -7.6
Five -11.0
ABC1s %
ITV1 -2.3
C4 -6.1
Five -15.5
16-34s %
ITV1 -8.0
C4 -9.5
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