Colin Grimshaw, Media Week, 26 February 2008, 00:00am

Breakfast duo embody GCap's upturn in fortunes

March 5 is the looming deadline by when Global Radio has to come back with a new bid for GCap, or wait another six months. Few expect Global not to come back with an improvement to its original 190p offer - broker Charles Stanley suggests a price of 220p-230p may succeed.

Colin Grimshaw, deputy editor of Media Week

However, once it shows its hand, it may find rival bidders emerging for a now slimmed down radio group with enhanced profit targets. Former Chrysalis boss Phil Riley is waiting in the wings with his VSS/Vetruvian private equity partners. Should Global fail, its attention will turn to Virgin Radio, currently resembling a jilted bride waiting at the altar.

It is ironic that, after three troubled years, GCap's life could be brought to an end just as its fortunes may be on the upturn. Axing the brave, but ultimately unsuccessful "two ads in a row" limit on 95.8 Capital can only have revenue upside. The exit from DAB has had a mixed reaction, but it will enable GCap to focus on FM, where the profit streams are more certain, leaving others to fly the digital flag.

Another upside is that a solution seems to have been found to the Capital breakfast dilemma, which came to characterise GCap's recent troubles. Since the loss of Capital veteran Chris Tarrant from radio to telly and his replacement by Johnny Vaughan, the station has suffered the ignominy of falling from first to third in the London ratings. Yet, Vaughan's breakfast show has recently regained top spot, edging above Heart, and upcoming Rajars may reveal an even greater revival - inspired by the shapely form of one Denise Van Outen.

The reunion on radio of the Channel 4 Big Breakfast couple is a masterstroke. On radio, Vaughan's offbeat humour can come over as dark, even hostile - he is not as female-friendly as Tarrant, or his Heart rival, Jamie Theakstone.

Van Outen, now a celeb in her own right who can match Vaughan for name-dropping, although still decidedly an Essex girl, is the perfect female foil, contributing equally to the repartee.

Now, if only Paul Jackson can get the esoteric music playlist sorted out, across the schedule, Capital, and GCap, may turn the corner. The coming weeks' machinations will determine whether GCap shareholders, or new owners, will be the beneficiaries.

- Colin Grimshaw is the deputy editor of Media Week.