Opera upbeat about ad growth in UK until 2010

by Tony Lithgow, Media Week 29-Nov-05

Omnicom's UK media negotiating company Opera has confounded the doom-mongers by predicting sustained ad growth in the UK from next year until 2010 in its latest Economic and Media Forecast for 2006.

The Opera forecast paints a much rosier picture than recent forecasts,
with display advertising expected to grow by 4.5%, total UK ad spend to
top £15bn in 2010 and online ad share to reach 10% by 2007 - a

year which will also see spending on out-of-home to exceed £1bn

(see story below). Revenue growth for 2005 is predicted at 2.5%.

Its upbeat assessment is in marked contrast to a recent quarterly report
from ZenithOptimedia, which forecast 2.7% ad growth rate, significantly
lower than the 4.9% it tipped at the beginning of the year.

However, the Opera report predicts tough times ahead for radio
advertising with revenue declines - from £624m in 2004 to £587m in 2006 - and says the sector is in its most difficult position for
15 years.

Hard times are forecast too for the red-top newspapers, with continuing
circulation falls, predicted at 3.5% in 2006. The report foresees a
"turbulent year" for national newspapers next year, with only the
qualities that have converted to tabloid or Berliner continuing to do
well, and with The Daily Telegraph coming under increasing pressure to
conform. Mid-market papers are expected to suffer declines of 2% to
3.5%.

ITV1's overall share of TV revenue is expected to slump from this year's
46.8% to 43.3% in 2006 in a market expected to grow 2.5%. Multichannel
revenues are expected to be up 15% in 2006.

The consumer magazine sector will see "more launches", but warns of a
potential weakening of the relationship between titles and their
readers.

Opera says its ad growth forecasts are based on an assessment of the
UK's overall economic performance and the factors driving advertising
expenditure - consumer spending, company profitability and major public
events.

"This figure reflects relatively fragile consumer demand, offset by
generally robust profitability, the added benefit from the World Cup to
be held in Germany next year and the generally bright economic outlook
towards the end of 2006," it says.

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