Next year could well mark a turning point for media

by Steve Barrett, Media Week 11-Dec-07

Another media year has shot by indecently quickly. It barely seems five minutes since we welcomed Michael Grade back to the commercial media world in January. But as the year ends our thoughts are increasingly dominated by words such as iPhone, Facebook (still) and Kangaroo.

Grade brought his inimitable feel-good factor to ITV and the wider media. The company basked in this all year and posted encouraging trading figures, but the jury is still out as to the prospects of a return to form for the UK's biggest commercial broadcaster - it is now unlikely to achieve its first positive contract rights renewal position, for example.

Grade added a new lieutenant in Rupert Howell and brought Dawn Airey on board to shake up production and distribution, but essentially the ITV team is the same one he admits underperformed in the five years before he rejoined the firm. Much will hinge on ITV's soon-to-be unveiled 2008 schedule. The Grade feel-good factor cannot last forever and soon the City dogs will start barking for firmer signs of recovery.

Guarded optimism is the watchword in other "traditional" media, with possibly the first shoots of a return to form for newspapers if ZenithOptimedia's latest forecasts are to be believed (page 16).

Elsewhere, everyone is looking to see if Facebook will live up to the hype in 2008 and become a genuine advertising platform. Or will it simply fade away and be looked upon as a short-lived fad, like Friends Reunited or - dare I say it - Second Life. The hiring of Blake Chandlee as first UK employee is a smart move and somehow I think this one could stand the test of time. It's what Friends Reunited could have become if it had seized the opportunity.

Across all media, clients and agencies are scrapping for the attention of increasingly fickle and savvy consumers who want content on their terms and recognise that sometimes the price they have to pay is exposure to advertising. If the media industry recognises this and starts to fight back and persuade regulators and government that advertising isn't necessarily the force for evil it is often painted as, 2008 could well prove to be a turning point.

- Steve Barrett is editor of Media Week, steve.barrett@haymarket.com.