The YouGov poll in the Evening Standard today shows Johnson is up two points on last week's rating to 49 points, with the Mayor down one point to 36.
The Mayor's campaign said it was launching an official complaint against YouGov to the Market Research Society, accusing the poll firm of using "flawed methodology" and that its polls were "totally out of line with polls using established methods".
The Livingstone campaign team cited an ICM poll from last week that showed the Mayor and Johnson to be neck and neck. As examples of the flawed methodology it said that YouGov over estimated the number of Londoners to be aged 55 plus, putting the figure at 39% compared to the Office of National Statistics, which estimates the figure is 26%
The Mayor's team also said YouGov do not take account of the much larger ethnic minority population in London.
A spokesperson for Ken Livingstone said: "This is because YouGov's methodology is fundamentally flawed. These and other mistakes mean that they consistently over estimate support for the Conservatives in London compared to established polling techniques and, as last week, we clearly reject this poll.
"YouGov's polls are misleading the public and we have therefore decided to make a formal complaint about their basic flaws."
If the latest YouGov poll were to be proved correct it would put the Tory candidate Johnson on course to be the next Mayor of London.
However, according to the Standard even the Tories' own polls "put the two main candidates much closer" than YouGov.
In response to the Livingstone complaint YouGov president Peter Kellner said that the Mayor's team were using the row to divert attention from their struggling campaign.
"This is a diversionary tactic to get people talking about the row rather than their campaign, which is in deep trouble.
"I will wait and see if they complain to the MRS and if the MRS thinks it is worth pursuing then we will respond to the MRS."
He said YouGov was first made aware of objections by the Mayor's team last week and the market research adjusted its profiling on the two areas cited, namely age and ethnic minorities.
"I take the view that we are not infallible and we looked in detail at our age and ethnic profiles, which we changed accordingly. Those changes are reflected in today's poll which show Boris Johnson's campaign 13 points ahead."
Comments
I hope YouGov are right for all our sakes
For my sins, I am professionally qualified in Market research. This year, I have had 3 local government or government surveys ring me up which all had inbuilt bias in methodology and objective. My local hospital is about to be closed because of one such misleading use of stats. My daughter's swimming club is closing, despite mass protests, because of some skewed idea that we need elite swimmers and therefore the majority of children should not be allowed use of the pools in clubs. On another occasion I managed to get a survey stopped because I raised it with my councillor. Research is PR and PR is now driving research. Integrity is going out of the window, bot by those who commision it and thiose who do it. Chase the headline and screw the integrity .
Lies damned lies and statistics
That would be YouGov run by Stephan Shakespeare, the former spokesman for Jeffrey Archer, Conservative pollster and (thankfully failed) Conservative candidate in the 97 election. Would it?
I agree with Mark Palmer that much "research" can no longer be trusted..it seems that most research starts off with the desired conclusions, and the research organisation is asked to justify them....
In this particular case, we have the pot calling the kettle black. Ken Livingstone is a master of research distortion management. I hope and trust that the YouGov results are correct. We need a change, desperately.
Red Ken is running scared and he's got a nerve making accusations about biased research. Every stat his office reports is massaged or a complete distortion of the truth. Boris for Mayor!
London needs a change from Ken. He's a monster.
http://www.brianpaddick.org/
http://www.brianpaddick.org/brian-paddick-to-hold-first-uk-political-interview-on-twitter-412
Ken out!
Not that it's really any of my business as I live in the leafy Home Counties but I've conclusively established that he is dreadful based on my own independent research
I think the term 'Red Ken' is a bit passe these days as he's proved he's business-friendly and has managed to prove a lot of his detractors wrong. London will be a complete laughing stock stock if Boris Johnson gets his hands on City Hall.
Well you can't beat a laughing stock stock
If you haven't already join "vote for Boris Johnson to be mayor of Trumpton" its essential that he wins the job he fully deserves.
During the televised Mayoral debate on Tuesday night, It looked as if Boris Johnson thought he was on 'Have I Got News for You' and not taking part in a serious debate about London on Newsnight.
No wonder the Tories are keeping him out of the public debate & eye as much as possible. There is no way he can or should be mayor of London - we would end up a laughing stock. He should think of joining a circus - better qualified for it and he has the hair.
Ken is the only credible candidate.
Liz come on, Boris wouldn't know serious if it was supposed to be his full time job...oh wait. The man is a total fool.
Could London be more of a joke already? Transport that doesn't work. Houses that no one can afford. CCTV on every corner. Reduced civil liberties and freedom. Sky high prices for everything. A mayor who is surrounded by lying aides and who has allegedly had numerous affairs according to this week's papers. It would be good to have a major with some intellect and common sense. Johnson and Paddick have both of these qualities in spades. Ken is New Labour scum.
I agree with the Ken bashers. Definitely time for him to go. He has made London a difficult and challenging place to live. Johnson talks good sense but it's questionable whether he wants the job. Paddick is a good man and will get my vote.
I don't understand this transport that doesn't work as 99% of the time for me the tubes are there, they come within minutes and carry me back and forth across london. I take a bus and two tubes a day and manage to get from N8 to W6 in 50 minutes. London is working.
B Agotcha - you appear to have gone from voting for Boris to Paddick all within the space of several blog comments - what happened?
Gordon - you must be the only commuter in London with a seamless, trouble free journey. Maybe I should move somewhere on the Piccadilly Line.
Mark Smith - I have indeed. Paddick has grown on me and I like his proposals but I might change my mind before voting day.
Comments
B Agotcha - 07/04/2008
I hope YouGov are right for all our sakes
Mark Palmer - 07/04/2008
For my sins, I am professionally qualified in Market research. This year, I have had 3 local government or government surveys ring me up which all had inbuilt bias in methodology and objective. My local hospital is about to be closed because of one such misleading use of stats. My daughter's swimming club is closing, despite mass protests, because of some skewed idea that we need elite swimmers and therefore the majority of children should not be allowed use of the pools in clubs. On another occasion I managed to get a survey stopped because I raised it with my councillor. Research is PR and PR is now driving research. Integrity is going out of the window, bot by those who commision it and thiose who do it. Chase the headline and screw the integrity .
Justin Driskill - 07/04/2008
Lies damned lies and statistics
Craig Smith - 08/04/2008
That would be YouGov run by Stephan Shakespeare, the former spokesman for Jeffrey Archer, Conservative pollster and (thankfully failed) Conservative candidate in the 97 election. Would it?
Fred Perkins - 08/04/2008
I agree with Mark Palmer that much "research" can no longer be trusted..it seems that most research starts off with the desired conclusions, and the research organisation is asked to justify them.... In this particular case, we have the pot calling the kettle black. Ken Livingstone is a master of research distortion management. I hope and trust that the YouGov results are correct. We need a change, desperately.
B Agotcha - 08/04/2008
Red Ken is running scared and he's got a nerve making accusations about biased research. Every stat his office reports is massaged or a complete distortion of the truth. Boris for Mayor!
Mark Smith - 08/04/2008
London needs a change from Ken. He's a monster. http://www.brianpaddick.org/
Mark Smith - 08/04/2008
http://www.brianpaddick.org/brian-paddick-to-hold-first-uk-political-interview-on-twitter-412
Jeremy Lee - 09/04/2008
Ken out! Not that it's really any of my business as I live in the leafy Home Counties but I've conclusively established that he is dreadful based on my own independent research
Liz McShane - 10/04/2008
I think the term 'Red Ken' is a bit passe these days as he's proved he's business-friendly and has managed to prove a lot of his detractors wrong. London will be a complete laughing stock stock if Boris Johnson gets his hands on City Hall.
Jeremy Lee - 10/04/2008
Well you can't beat a laughing stock stock
Gordon Macmillan - 10/04/2008
If you haven't already join "vote for Boris Johnson to be mayor of Trumpton" its essential that he wins the job he fully deserves.
Liz McShane - 10/04/2008
During the televised Mayoral debate on Tuesday night, It looked as if Boris Johnson thought he was on 'Have I Got News for You' and not taking part in a serious debate about London on Newsnight. No wonder the Tories are keeping him out of the public debate & eye as much as possible. There is no way he can or should be mayor of London - we would end up a laughing stock. He should think of joining a circus - better qualified for it and he has the hair. Ken is the only credible candidate.
Gordon Macmillan - 11/04/2008
Liz come on, Boris wouldn't know serious if it was supposed to be his full time job...oh wait. The man is a total fool.
Mark Smith - 11/04/2008
Could London be more of a joke already? Transport that doesn't work. Houses that no one can afford. CCTV on every corner. Reduced civil liberties and freedom. Sky high prices for everything. A mayor who is surrounded by lying aides and who has allegedly had numerous affairs according to this week's papers. It would be good to have a major with some intellect and common sense. Johnson and Paddick have both of these qualities in spades. Ken is New Labour scum.
B Agotcha - 11/04/2008
I agree with the Ken bashers. Definitely time for him to go. He has made London a difficult and challenging place to live. Johnson talks good sense but it's questionable whether he wants the job. Paddick is a good man and will get my vote.
Gordon Macmillan - 11/04/2008
I don't understand this transport that doesn't work as 99% of the time for me the tubes are there, they come within minutes and carry me back and forth across london. I take a bus and two tubes a day and manage to get from N8 to W6 in 50 minutes. London is working.
Mark Smith - 11/04/2008
B Agotcha - you appear to have gone from voting for Boris to Paddick all within the space of several blog comments - what happened?
Mark Smith - 11/04/2008
Gordon - you must be the only commuter in London with a seamless, trouble free journey. Maybe I should move somewhere on the Piccadilly Line.
B Agotcha - 11/04/2008
Mark Smith - I have indeed. Paddick has grown on me and I like his proposals but I might change my mind before voting day.