Media Forum: Should RTL ditch five for ITV?

his role.

That theory remains just about intact, despite the fact that last week's
"Dawn raid" involved Airey ousting not Grade but another chief executive
entirely - Jane Lighting, over at five.

This seems a backward step - after all, Airey was the chief executive of
five between 2000 and 2003. Airey famously doesn't take backward steps -
leading many to speculate that she has in reality jumped ship to lead a
bid by five's parent company, RTL, for ITV.

The supposition is that RTL will offer five to BSkyB in exchange for
Sky's 17.9 per cent stake in ITV - a stake that the Competition
Commission has ordered Sky to sell, but which is currently worth scores
of millions less than Sky paid for it.

Both sides will therefore be happy. Sky has always wanted a foothold in
terrestrial broadcasting and RTL has vowed to be top commercial
broadcaster in all its markets across Europe.

Granted, there are one or two difficulties with this theory. Airey could
be on enforced gardening leave for a whole year, for instance. And then
there's the fact that RTL is thought to be strapped for cash. There
might also be new Competition Commission issues relating to the scenario
outlined above. And, with the analogue switch-off looming large, the
notion of a terrestrial television channel becomes less relevant by the
month.

But humour us. Would it be in advertisers' interests to see RTL ditching
five and Airey gaining control at ITV?

Andy Jones, the chief executive of Universal McCann, says his gut
reaction is to say no, but his head tells him he should be prepared to
keep an open mind.

He adds: "My initial reaction would be that this is not what I'd want to
see. There would be all sorts of competition issues - I don't think
anyone would like to see a five-ITV combination, and a five-BSkyB
combination would be a major worry too.

"There's already too great a degree of concentration of ownership in
television. I also think we should be prepared to give more credit to
Michael Grade and what he has achieved at ITV. On the other hand, new
investment is always a welcome proposition."

Chris Hayward, the head of investment at ZenithOptimedia, is even less
convinced. He argues that any changes to the ownership of five and ITV
could further erode the "Britishness" of both. He explains: "We need a
balance and variety in commercial television - and it's interesting
looking across the schedules to see how much Boston Legal- and CSI-type
American programming there is. I don't think we'd want more of
that."

Exactly, Neil Johnston, the head of TV at OMD UK, agrees. He says: "Five
has focused on international programming formats like CSI, and though it
has developed a good-sized audience, it has a poor (demographic)
profile. People always tend to talk up RTL, but it has been in this
market for a decade and it hasn't really appeared interested in
consolidating its position. I'm not convinced it could bring anything to
ITV."

It's true, Marc Mendoza, the managing partner at MPG, says: advertisers
are only interested in one thing. He concludes: "They really don't care
about share price issues or ownerships or (who's who) in the regime.

"Airey has always been pretty highly regarded by advertisers - it's
certainly a name they know. My own personal feeling is that if you
looked at her CV details without being told whose they were, you might
feel that this person wasn't a stayer. That would be the main worry. But
the truth is that advertisers are interested only in whether ITV or five
has programmes that deliver viewers."

- Got a view? E-mail us at campaign@haymarket.com

MAYBE - Andy Jones, chief executive, Universal McCann

"My instinct is to say no. But, on the other hand, I also have to
recognise that if there are serious players prepared to invest in the
market leader in UK commercial television, then, at some level, that has
to be a good thing."

NO - Chris Hayward, head of investment, ZenithOptimedia

"The great thing about ITV is that it does what it does while still
being British in flavour. I would worry that if a company like RTL came
in, much of that Britishness would be eroded."

NO - Neil Johnston, head of TV, OMD UK

"If you compare what RTL has done with five and what the current ITV
management has done, then ITV has done better. RTL has been in this
market over a decade and I'm not sure it has ever shown true
ambition."

MAYBE - Marc Mendoza, managing partner, MPG

"If RTL were to come in and invest in programming, then it would be
fantastic for advertisers, but it's a big 'if'. As I understand it, even
if RTL were in a position to make a bid for ITV, it wouldn't
(subsequently) be in a position to make major investments in
programming."