Carat revises down global adspend forecast in face of uncertainty

The Aegis-owned media agency said the main driver of the reductions this year is a reduction in adspend in four of the world's largest economies: the US, the UK, Spain and China.

China's growth has been revised downwards by a percentage point for this year, given the impact of the May earthquake and uncertainty about post-Olympics ad spending.

The UK's overall growth forecast has been cut from 4.3% to 2.5%, with a downward revision of 1.8%.

Elsewhere, the majority of the developed economies are predicted to contribute less than 5% growth, while emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Latin America continue to surge ahead and provide reason for optimism in the face of the downturn elsewhere.

Jerry Buhlmann, the chief executive of Aegis Media, said: "It's clear that the worldwide economic issues affecting businesses are having an impact on where and how advertisers spend their money.

"It is also significant that the US and the UK, as the highest spenders on advertising in their regions, are showing reductions in our forecasts. But overall, the picture is still one of growth."

In the US, growth is predicted to slow to 2.1% from an earlier forecast of 3.8%, with newspapers, magazines and radio all experiencing declines in 2008. US newspapers have been particularly hard hit with thousands losing their jobs as papers cut staff.

However, TV and the internet are expected to show gains, boosted by spending from the US presidential elections and the Beijing Olympics, which proved a boon for NBC.

In China, 2009 is forecast to see a more significant decline in growth, with forecasts down from 13.2% to 10.9% in what will become the world's third largest advertising market.

Despite this, Carat said growth in China is still well ahead of predictions for the developed world.