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Adspend to rise by 45% over next decade

LONDON - While advertising industry executives remain glum about a recovery in the next two years, long-term forecasts claim that adspend could be up by as much as 45% in the next decade.

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A new report by the Advertising Association, 'Long-Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast', says that there will be a substantial increase in adspend in the UK over the next decade.

It predicts a "high option" increase from £11bn in 2002 to £15.95bn in 2012, with estimates at the lower end forecasting an increase from £10.7bn this year to £12.75bn in 2012. These figures do not include internet or direct mail spend.

The AA said it has no illusions about the difficulties in forecasting adspend.

"However, the new forecast makes the point that it is vital to maintain a sense of perspective when considering long-term trends," a spokesman for the AA said.

It is critical of those naysayers predicting that there will be no early recovery in advertising. It says: "Pundits predict the end of growth in main media advertising with clockwork regularity -- usually at the very point when the industry is starting to recover.

"Advertising expenditure has recovered from all previous post-war recessions and the AA sees no reason why the outcome of this one should be different in any way."

The report is available from the World Advertising Research Centre.

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