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Gordon's Republic

Primary result and how the media missed it

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Oh to be a pollster or media pundit this morning. I have been watching agog as the US media whipped itself into a frenzy over Barack Obama (sorry JFK Mk II) and write off Hillary Clinton, one of its favourite pastimes.
All day yesterday the numbers seemed to get bigger and bigger as a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll put Barack Obama 13 points ahead of Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary.

Every poll seemed to say the same and media pundits rejoiced as headlines such as "Obama set to crush Clinton in primary" and " Clinton's White House hopes unravel" appeared all over the wires.

In the end what did we get? Not the reverse, but a welcome victory for Clinton as New Hampshire voters defied expectations and edged out Obama by two percentage points.

Obama seems like a decent centrist politician whose main qualites at this point are youth, inexperience and the endless use of the word "change", which is employed in vague and amorphous sentences that also employ the word "hope".

Leading liberal media commentators love him. They have gone gaga and, in some cases, lost all touch with reality instead preferring political fantasy. A lot of his support seems down to the fact that he comes with a clean slate. A lot is because he is not Hillary Clinton, whom the likes of the New York Times can not forgive for backing the war in Iraq.

The usually "super-sour Maureen Dowd" in The New York Times said Obama offers Americans "a cool, smart, elegant, reasonable, literary, witty, decent West Wing sort of president".

A West Wing presidency? You see where the liberal fantasy comes in. I loved that show as much as the next liberal lefty. Jed Bartlet was the best president ever ('The West Wing' one of the best written shows ever), but sadly that was a TV show.

The embracing of Obama has come at a high price for Hillary Clinton. In The Times yesterday David Aaronovitch picked up on something that appears to be increasingly apparent as this 2008 presidential race has developed: namely that misogyny appears to be even stronger than racism.

This is echoed again today in The Guardian in Michael Tomasky's piece 'The Clinton rebellion' on how women voters won it for Hillary Clinton last night in New Hampshire and how the media missed the real story because it was blinded.

"I think it was mostly a rebellion by women voters against the media. Most major media outlets had written Clinton's obituary and could barely conceal their joy in doing so. And voters, especially women voters, said: not so fast.

"I've seen this happen before. In the fall of 2000, she debated her opponent in the race for the New York senate seat she won that year. The opponent, Rick Lazio, strode over to her podium and wagged his finger in her face. The media loved the moment, thought Lazio looked tough and declared him the winner.

"But over the next couple days, it emerged in polling that people, especially women, thought Clinton had won the debate. The media missed what had really happened, and reported with glee on Clinton's alleged comeuppance."

Published Jan 09 2008, 09:08 AM by Gordon Macmillan

Filed under: America, American Media, The New York Times, US media, US Presidential elections

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Comments

by David Gibson

January 9, 2008 11:40 AM

The Newsnight pundit last night even claimed to have some 'early' 'unofficial' exit polls which said Obama was ahead 'but only in single digits'. I hope he's on tonight explaining how he got it wrong.

by Gordon Macmillan

January 9, 2008 11:48 AM

Looks like he had plenty of company. Egg on Face. Brilliant.

by Rory Sutherland

January 9, 2008 12:41 PM

Wonderful post. You should also be alert to widespread anti-Welsh prejudice which will colour the reporting of Hillary's campaign. There are, however, a few other biases at work here. Wishful thinking on the part of the media is one thing. But on its own this shouldn't skew exit polls. There must also be some polling error - or else disingenuousness on the part of exiting NH voters. I was just wondering if we could devise something as crazily fun as this US system here in the UK. Perhaps the first voting for the leader of the Labour Party would take place every four years in Cheltenham, followed by Pembrokeshire and Lincolnshire East.

by Gordon Macmillan

January 9, 2008 1:01 PM

Rory there is definitely something to be said for your suggestion! The way the primaries can galavanize political interest (particularly) among the youth vote is worth thinking about.

by SEAN RUTTLEDGE

January 9, 2008 4:05 PM

When I were a lad some bloke named Kinnock held a victory party the day before an election result because the exit polls had showed a Landslide Victory for his Old Labour party He filled the Don Valley Stadium in Sheffield and "air-punched" the night away to anthems like "Things can only get better" and "The only way is up" Sadly the sample for the exit poll was taken from workers leaving a colliery in the Barnsley area of the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire Needless to say he had OEUF all over his very red RED face the following morn when it was announced that a rather GREY Tory candidate had become the new PM "Lies, Damned lies and Statistics" hey ?

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