GroupM slashes 2011 adspend growth forecast to 1.5%
GroupM has revised down its forecast for UK adspend growth in 2011, from 3.6% to 1.5%, with particular repercussions for print, after a gloomy start to the year.
Adspend: GroupM downgrades growth forecast for 2011
The WPP media-buying powerhouse has changed its tune since its last reading of the runes in December, blaming the retail sales slowdown.
It is in good company, with the Advertising Association/Warc also downgrading their forecast from 2.9% to 1.4% yesterday, citing the downturn in consumer confidence and disposable income.
While AA/Warc stuck to its existing 2012 forecast of 5.4% growth, GroupM picked 3.3% as its first prediction for next year.
GroupM's new 'This Year Next Year' report said: "2011's UK retail sales slowdown has put a brake on advertising, at least short-term ... measured advertising is the same as 1999 in real terms, and as a share of the economy – we expect about 0.8% – the lowest since 1971."
When broken down, GroupM's forecast reveals individual media have been marked for substantial revisions, most downwards, but a few upwards.
Online display and email will grow by 11.9%, rather than 5%, and mobile by 69.9% rather than 45.5%.
The previous prediction of a 2.9% drop for radio has been upgraded to "no change".
However, GroupM has taken the red pen to print media in particular, changing national and regional newspapers from a 1.1% drop to an 8.3% lurch downwards and consumer magazines from a 2% rise to a 5% drop.
National newspapers will lose 4.1% of their 2010 revenues but regionals will be hit by a troubling 12.6% fall, according to its forecast.
TV's growth has been downgraded from 4% to 1.1% and cinema's from 2.9% to zero.
This leaves outdoor as the medium with the best prospects outside online categories, albeit the previous prediction of 6.1% growth has been shaved to 2%.
|GroupM Forecast - UK Adspend|
|Dec 2010 prediction||June 2011 prediction||
Predicted 2011 adspend
2011 YOY% growth
|2011 YOY% growth||Media GBP m, net|
|Display and email||5.0||11.9||951|
|Media total GBP m||3.6||1.5||12,523|
This article was first published on mediaweek.co.uk
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