'Economic uncertainty' forces GroupM to lower 2012 global adspend forecast

The WPP media outfit expects marketers to spend $506.3bn (£323bn) on media this year, up from $482bn (£307bn) in 2011.

In its 70-country forecast, it also predicts that global adspend in 2013 will increase 5.3% compared to 2012, representing $533.2bn (£342bn).

US growth for 2012 has been revised down from 4% to 3.6%, and chief investment officer Rino Scanzoni said: "We attribute the decline in US ad spending to a number of factors, including a loss of economic momentum, the global deterioration from all continents, but particularly the Eurozone, and political and fiscal uncertainty at home for the election and beyond."

Ad investment in the Eurozone periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) fell 6% in 2011 and is expected to fall a further 8.8% in 2012, before levelling out in 2013.

GroupM futures director Adam Smith indicated this prediction "assumes an orderly normalization of the Eurozone".

Digital media growth has been revised up from 16% to 18%, representing a $99bn (£63bn) sum and a fifth of all 2012 spend.

In 2013, digital is forecast to grow 22%, and Smith said: "Internet advertising is growing in every country, so powerful is its structural and evolutionary development."

Smith said TV adspend may have peaked in 2011 at a 43% share, because "the continued development of internet advertising, notably video, will now possibly nip at TV's nominal share, though some internet video investment will simply return to different pockets of the same TV vendors".   

Print newspapers' share of advertising, meanwhile, hit a new low of 17% in 2011, and is expected to drop another percentage point in 2012 and 2013.

Earlier this month GroupM forecast 3.4% growth for UK adspend in 2012.

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	2011	2012f	2013f
NORTH AMERICA	159,738	165,487	170,680
yoy %	3.1	3.6	3.1
LATIN AMERICA	28,366	31,661	35,264
yoy %	13.2	11.6	11.4
WESTERN EUROPE	102,726	101,978	103,577
yoy %	0.9	-0.7	1.6
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE	18,071	19,562	21,159
yoy %	12.5	8.3	8.2
ASIA-PACIFIC (all)	155,818	169,085	182,338
yoy %	7.7	8.5	7.8
NORTH ASIA	70,274	78,822	87,071
yoy %	15.2	12.2	10.5
ASEAN	13,070	14,457	16,089
yoy %	12.7	10.6	11.3
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA	17,149	18,514	20,227
yoy %	5.8	8.0	9.3
WORLD	481,869	506,287	533,245
yoy %	5.0	5.1	5.3

f = forecast

spend figures in US dollars

This article was first published on mediaweek.co.uk